May 20th, 1998
Author : Joel Campbell
jcampbell@hotmail.com
School : St. Joseph Scollard Hall
"If humanity fails to act, nature may end the population explosion for us, in very
unpleasant ways, well before 10 billion is reached" (Ehrlich, 98). Population in our
world is like a disease, its wide spread will only bring devastation to a people who will
eventually end up breeding themselves into extinction. The world as we know it cannot
sustain much more population growth without increasing the instances of food shortages,
lack of resources, poverty, ozone depletion, deforestation, and desertification, to name a
few.
Who started it all?
Thomas Malthus was among the first to discover the upward spiralling problem of population
growth. In his essay on "Principles of Population" Malthus clearly outlined the
human instinct to reproduce "They are all impelled by a powerful instinct to the
increase of their species, and this instinct is interrupted by no reasoning or doubts
about providing for their offspring" (Malthus, 4). Charles Darwin reinforced this
statement when he said:
There is no exception to the rule that every organic being naturally increases at so high
a rate, that, if not destroyed, the earth would probably be covered by the progeny of a
single pair. Even slow breading, man has doubled in twenty-five years, and at this rate,
in less than a thousand years, there would literally not be standing room for his progeny.
(Darwin, Ehrlich Web Site).
This reiteration of the human instinct to breed reinforces Malthus’ grim predictions
for the future, should population continue to increase unchecked. Malthus also clearly
stated that the demand for food by an enormous population can not be met in the future
because "Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence
increases only in an arithmetical ratio" (Malthus, 1). With food growing at such a
slow pace, we must attempt to find solutions to slow the increasingly fast geometrical
growth of population. This brings us back to the opening quotation in which Ehrlich
outlined the possibility of the intervention of nature into the increasingly constricting
problem of social and biophysical carrying capacity.
Nature’s Intervention
"To repeat the old saying, it’s the top of the ninth and humanity has been
hitting nature hard. But we must remember that nature hits last!" (Ehrlich, 225). The
only way to examine the natural checks put on population is sift through the past and pick
out occurrences which had influences on population growth.
10 000 BC End of the last Ice Age; humans lived as hunters and gatherers.
1230 AD Leprosy imported to Europe by Crusaders
1347-1351 Black Death/Plague; 75 million people die
1495 Syphilis epidemic spreads through Europe
1567 Two million South American Indians die of typhoid
1750 Industrial Revolution begins in Europe
1796 Smallpox vaccination introduced
1800 Industrial Revolution begins in US
1825 World population: 1 Billion
1827 Water purification filter developed
1853 Hypodermic syringe created
1893 Automobile built
1927 Airplanes dust crops with insecticides
1943 Penicillin used against infection
1954 Vaccine for Polio
1978 Test-tube baby born
1996 World population: 5.8 Billion
(Ehrlich, Web Site)
Take note that, in this "Population Timeline" (Ehrlich, Web Site) nature itself
had kept population relatively low for over ten thousand years with epidemics of Leprosy,
Black Death, Syphilis, and Typhoid. These epidemics kept population in check until the
arrival of the Industrial Revolution which brought the creation of many vaccines to fight
these diseases. As humans continued to create inventions that would make life easier and
raise the standard of living, they inadvertently increased the average life expectancies
and caused this massive surge in population.
The Population Explosion
By the beginning of the industrial revolutions in Europe and the United States in late
18th century, the total world population had just begun to barely attain 1 billion mark
and now, 150 years later, we are at 5.8 billion (Population Timeline) there must be a
reason for this incredible blast in growth. The term "Population Explosion" was
coined by Paul Ehrlich as a statement to describe the rapid spurt in the population growth
of the twentieth century (Ehrlich, Key Terms). By examining the age structure of our
current world, one can pick out many patterns which help to explain the dramatic increase
of population of the 20th century. One of these points of interest is the fact that,
generally, people are living much longer. Improvements in health care and standard of
living have increased the life expectancy of the average human and has resulted in a
healthier, more "durable" people. "Life expectancy at birth increased by
over 18 years for women and by 13 years for men" (McKie, 65) With this increased life
expectancy, more people began to live through their childhood and into their childbearing
years. This had definite repercussions on the total world population. The birth rate
further exceeded the death rate resulting in an increased population momentum which has
not yet been stopped. Unfortunately, the cycle does not stop here, with the increasing
population momentum, there were many more child births and a large part of the population
was created. This part of the population represented the young children who have not yet
entered their birthing years which brings us to yet another term, "Demographic
Momentum". Demographic Momentum is the ability for a population to continue expanding
despite reproductive rates being reduced. (Key Terms) Basically, this means that even if
extreme measures are taken to lower reproductive rates, the population will still succeed
in growing due to the "large proportion of our population entering their reproductive
years" (Key Terms).
Stopping sex altogether would be an impossibility, therefore we must concentrate our
efforts on assisting couples in family planning in order to give them the power to have as
many or as little number of children as they want.
Birth Control
Birth control will help humanity to equalize the rate of natural increase in the world and
slow the population explosion. If the World could achieve widespread birth control,
exponential growth could be slowed by as much as 35% in select areas (Polestsky, 115).
"If current demands were met, there would be 35% fewer births in Latin America, 33%
fewer in Asia, and 27% fewer in Africa" (Polestsky, 115).
With all of these demands for methods of contraception, one can only imagine the potential
decrease of population growth that could be achieved with adequate supplies. The Agency
for International Development (AID) has reported that it will "have more than 100
million fewer condoms than it needs to meet demand" (Polestsky 114). Birth control
and the education to prompt its use is greatly needed in developing countries such as
those in Africa which house some of the highest fertility rates in the World.
Unfortunately, contraceptive use is linked to people of higher education which ironically,
is the area where it is least needed. "In Nigerian cities, contraceptive users were
found to have at least a secondary education and a white-collar income and
employment" (Gordon 137). According to the World Bank statistics, in Nigerian cities,
only "27% of boys are enrolled in secondary school but only 13% of girls"
(Gordon 209). This correlation between birth control and education does not give a very
optimistic view of Africa's future population. If only 27% of boys and 13% of girls are
enrolled in school, and increasingly large part of the population will live without the
education or personal resources to learn and practice methods of contraception, whether
they be natural, or modern.
In the World today, there is a wide range of mixed views about contraceptives. Although
methods of contraception are limited by religious and cultural factors, they are still in
great demand around the world. With proper education and organization, birth control could
become the savior of humanity. For this to happen, we must have religion on our side.
Religious Factors
Presently, other than education, the main thing preventing these widespread use of
contraceptives is religion. In fact, religion and its affects on people's lives could be
considered as one of the leading factors contributing to the world's population. China is
a prime example of the influence of religious beliefs on population growth.
The Years of the Dragon, including 1976 and 1988, are the years of the Chinese zodiac
considered particularly favourable for having children. As the fertility of the Chinese
and peninsular Malaysia declined from 1960 to 1990, the level of fertility (in China)
spiked in 1976 and 1988 while the fertility of the Malay population continued its slower
decline in those years.(Cohen 288)
The Chinese religion single handedly caused an increase in population. This observation
proves that religion has a strong influence on fertility because the Years of the Dragon
do not involve political or economic factors that would otherwise affect population growth
(Cohen 288). Therefore, in this case religion was the only factor acting on the population
and it showed considerable increase.
This religious opposition towards fertility control by certain churches greatly influences
its follower's attitudes about contraception. In an industrialized overcrowded era, the
idea of God being responsible for choosing the number of children a couple will have is
ridiculously out of date. The Catholic position is described as inhumane policies that,
all over the world, force Catholics to choose between what their intelligence and moral
sense tell them a doctrine which is dangerously outmoded. (Ehrlich, 241-242).
Although, the Catholic Church is not alone in its objection to contraception and family
planning, "The Hutterites, the Amish and some Orthodox Jewish groups are similarly
opposed" (Cohen, 288). it is definitely the group which is most discussed because of
its wide range of followers throughout the world. In Canada, for example, Catholicism
represents just under half the total population at over 12 million followers. (Statistics
Canada, Catalogue no. 93-319-XPB)
In a letter written to the Pope, catholic botanist, John Thomas wrote that "Anyone
working to prevent bringing human birth rates down is simply working to increase death
rates" (Ehrlich 242). He makes reference to statements made in the Reaffirmation of
Humanae Vitae in which the catholic church reaffirmed its objection to unnatural
contraception. Thomas is a reputable professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at
Stanford University. He states that "For the good of humanity and the future of our
church, I urge you to reconsider your position on this issue, and get the church back on
the side of humanity instead of dogma" (Ehrlich 242). This very bold statement shows
the extreme frustration of many Catholics, whose natural instinct is to use modern birth
control in order to prevent unwanted children from being born.
By preventing unwanted child births, couples could keep the population at a minimum growth
rate. "The UN has calculated that if all women who said they wanted no more children
were able to stop childbearing, the numbers would be reduced by 35% in Latin America, 33%
in Asia, and 27% in Africa" (Polestsky, 115).and are helping to ensure that there
will still be resources such as food left for their children and grand children.
Food
Populations' effect on food is like a double-edged sword. "Soaring population now has
a dual effect on food balance: it increases demand as it degrades the agricultural
resource base" (McCuen 83). Without food, humanity cannot survive and shortages just
might end up being that "natural" check that Ehrlich speaks of.
The amount of food available restrains the size of any animal population, unless space,
disease, predators, or some other factor sets lower limits. Homo sapiens is no exception
to that rule, and at the moment it seems likely that food will be our limiting resource
(Ehrlich 66).
As population increases, there is a greater demand for food and less area to grow it on.
"Each year farmers must feed 90 million more people using 25 billion tons less
topsoil" (Ehrlich 242). As Malthus stated in his first postulate "food is
necessary to the existence of man" (Malthus, 1)he was implying that, obviously,
without food, life couldn't exist. Since subsistence only increases arithmetically (as
mentioned before) it is obvious that the future does not look bright for the survival of
humankind.
The United Nations Population Fund announced that UN demographers have revised their
earlier projections of world population upward.... Instead of leveling off at 10 billion,
world population will settle at 14 billion. For a world that cannot adequately feed 5.2
billion inhabitants today, this comes as sobering news (McCuen 83).
Although the world's food supply is one of its most important resources, it's actually
only one of many resources which needs attention and protection from the ticking
population bomb.
Destruction of Natural Resources
In the world today, resources are a major source of profit and are used until they are
exhausted, then, society moves on to another. "People a decade hence will be dealing
with an entirely new set of resources" (Ehrlich 165). This misuse of resources is
partly due to a belief that the availability of resources is unlimited.
This behavior is based in part on the first axiom of mainstream economics: since an
infinite array of resources is believed to exist, once one resource has been destroyed
there will always be another that can profitably be exploited to extinction, then another,
and another, and another (Ehrlich 165).
Many economists believe that resources are infinite and that humans will always find a way
to make use of what they have to survive. Among these uninformed economists is Julian
Simon.
It is amazing but true that resource shortages resulting from population or income growth
usually leave us better of than if the shortage had ever arisen. If fire-wood had not
become scarce in 17th century England, coal would not have been developed. If coal and
whale oil shortages hadn’t loomed, oil wells would not have been dug (Simon, 24).
Just because "Simon Says", doesn’t mean it true. The growing scarcity of
these finite resources poses an economic problem to rapidly growing populations. Not to
mention the massive effects that Simon’s mentioned resources such as coal and oil
have on the environment. Human "wants" are unlimited and with scarce amounts of
resources in their areas, people such as North Americans look to other countries from
which they can import the goods that they need. As Simon says, this trade is good for the
economy, but it is detrimental to the earth's resources. The importing of goods from third
world countries into place such as North America creates a very unequal distribution of
goods and causes suffering for developing countries. Simon’s statement that "raw
material have been getting less scarce instead of more scarce throughout history"
(Simon, 24) is plainly wrong. Throughout history, the improving development of resources
has made them more available but has not increased the actual amount. "When something
grows it gets bigger. When something develops it gets different. The earth ecosystem
develops (evolves), but does not grow." (Daly, 1). This shows that finite resources
are indeed limited and once exhausted, cannot be replaced.
Solutions
There have been many attempts to slow population growth but without the cooperation of the
whole world, most plans are destined to fail. "Internationally, the Chinese oppose
outside interference with their own country’s - or with any other country’s -
population growth" (SIRS) and although they now have a control system in place,
originally they had found power in numbers and had indulged themselves in high growth
rates.
In an overpopulated world no country can have the right to indulge itself in a high growth
rate. Since the human population of the world is truly a single interdependent community,
such behavior by any country could reasonably be regarded as irresponsible and a threat to
all the rest (Ehrlich 1970, 247)
This was the belief in the 1970’s, but now, China has felt the repercussions of its
tremendously high population and has had to put a one-child policy into place in order to
slow and eventually halt it’s growth. They now believe that "man must control
nature, and he must also control his numbers" (Ehrlich, 205) By putting this program
in place, they can control their numbers and actually lower their population by turning
two people (the initial couple) into one (the child). The Chinese program has been dubbed
the "most successful population control program in the world" (Ehrlich 205). In
contrast, Canada has begun to reach a stable population with the natural increasing number
of women in the workforce from 41% in 1975 to 53% in 1990 (McKie, 100). This has increased
the instances of couples without children or with merely one child. Whatever the method
may be, slowing the world population growth is a long process which will require the
cooperation of all. Many organizations have been set up such as ZPG (Zero Population
Growth), the Unite Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), and the World Bank but
for these organizations to be successful, they must work together and not only represent
the interests of certain countries. Roy Calne has said that population control is the most
urgent task for the United Nations.
If only there could be established a scientific division of the United Nations, headed by
a scientist with the administrative capacity of Lee Kuan Yew, to use scientific methods to
work out means of controlling the growth of population, to stop the rape of the earth and
minimize the dangers of a nuclear war! It would need to be a non-political, non-religious
body, similar to the concept of the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences,
able to speak the truth rather than indulge in the lies of politically correct statements
or the prevarication’s of politicians. (Calne, 119)
This non-political, non-religious body would not be affected be the religious and economic
factors as mentioned before. Unlike Simon, he or she would make decisions in the interest
of money and would have to represent the interest of humanity rather than specific
countries.
Dinosaurs dominated the earth well before humanity and survived over 150 million years.
(Bookshelf 96-97) Human, on the other hand, have been around for about 3 million years
(Bookshelf 96-97). Nature, destroyed them, are we next? Something must be done soon
because remember "Nature bats last!" (Ehrlich 225)
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